Publication Abstract

Alternative future scenarios for marine ecosystems: summary report

D. Viner, J. Pinnegar and N. Sheard

AFMEC is a strategic project funded under Defra's 'Horizon Scanning' initiative. The Horizon Scanning Programme was established by Defra’s Chief Scientific Adviser in 2002, in order to anticipate and prepare for new science risks and/or opportunities. Horizon scanning research aims to encourage crosscutting thinking in both the natural and social sciences. The goal of the AFMEC study has been to encourage debate about alternative futures for marine ecosystems, and to develop a series of future scenarios that can be used by Defra and other stakeholders for strategic planning. Whilst marine ecosystems around the UK provide the main focus for the AFMEC project, the study is framed within a wider EU and global perspective. In terms of future time-frames, the AFMEC scenarios were developed for the next 20-30 years and they are designed to be compatible with similar futures work carried out by the UK Office of Science and Technology (OST) and the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP). This document provides a brief summary, drawing on a more comprehensive technical report (Pinnegar et al. 2006). Four scenarios are elaborated for marine ecosystems. The differences between these four visions stem from alternative paths of development or governance, different assumptions about climate change and contrasting societal values.

Reference:

D. Viner, J. Pinnegar and N. Sheard (2006) Alternative future scenarios for marine ecosystems: summary report. Norwich: School of Environmental Science, University of East Anglia. 20pp.