Publication Abstract

Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to marine climate change impacts, due to the low coastal profile of the island, which is also densely populated with many rural areas dedicated to fishing and aquaculture. Motivated by this, we aimed to conduct a marine climate change risk assessment for Sri Lanka. The stepwise approach consisted of a comprehensive literature review and synthesis of risks, followed by appraisal, validation and scoring by expert stakeholders. This paper summarises the findings of key variables of change (temperature, sea-level rise, ocean circulation, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, storminess, precipitation and wind), and the observed impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. The most important biodiversity risks identified include decreasing plankton productivity; threats to sea turtles; changes to fish; increasing threat of corals; changes to mangroves and seagrasses; shoreline erosion; and increasing risk of bio-invasions. Key risks to ecosystem services include declining fisheries; damage and disruption to critical infrastructure and services; threats to tourism; and loss of protective coastal habitats. We identify climate knowledge gaps involving lack of climate data and evidence of impacts, particularly cumulative impacts, and provide recommendations for marine monitoring and research to inform and strengthen climate policy, preparedness and action in Sri Lanka.

Susana Lincoln*, Piyali Chowdhury*, Olivia L. Harrod*, Sevvandi Jayakody, Karen Vanstaen*, Meththika S. Vithanage and John K. Pinnegar*