Publication Abstract

Timely, comprehensive risk assessments for disease management are often challenging, particularly in the event of sudden epidemiological events, new threats or shifting drivers of disease expression. To better address emerging threats and justify control measures for existing diseases, a rapid risk assessment tool was developed to support strategic decision-making and effective aquatic animal health management. Based on international standards for risk analysis from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH), this tool aims to provide a systematic, transparent and repeatable risk assessment of aquatic animal diseases to advice on policy decision. Accessibility of the tool facilitates rapid gathering and evaluation of a wide range of information and data, in turn ensuring a flexible, dynamic and effective process to respond to rapid changes in knowledge or epidemiological situation. Informing on the amount of uncertainty at each step of the risk assessment, the tool directly supports risk communication by providing a clear, well-defined structure based on common risk methodology and terminology, and assists risk managers in understanding broader threats, including impacts on trade, wildlife and the environment. Applications of the tool to a wide range of epidemiological contexts, including novel domestic events, investigation of mortality events, data collation from expert elicitation, information dissemination and disease ranking for policy strategic prioritisation, provide valuable insights facilitating the provision and communication of risk-based advice to underpin aquatic disease management.

Mickael Teixeira Alves*, Mark Thrush*, Edmund J. Peeler*, Sophie Armitage*, Debbie Murphy*, Chantelle Hooper*, John P. Bignell*, Richard Hazelgrove*, David Bass*, Hannah J. Tidbury*