Epidemiological modelling

Our epidemiology team has an established track record in disease and risk modelling.

We work with the UK government bodies such as Defra and the Food Standards Agency, as well as with the European Union, Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) to advise on freshwater and marine epidemiology. Our team also increasingly provides services to commercial companies and foreign governments.

Our scientists have specialist expertise in a range of risk modelling approaches, including pathway analysis to assess routes of the introduction for diseases and non-native species, network modelling to forecast the spread of diseases and scenario tree modelling for diseases surveillance. We also employ economic modelling to assess the economic impact of disease incursions.

Well-established differential equation modelling techniques allow us to assess how endemic diseases, such as koi herpesvirus, may spread between fishery sites. We also apply risk models to determine the role of anglers in spreading disease. Other models simulate the spread of an introduced viral disease between farms and rivers.

The results of our epidemiology modelling have been used to define outbreak scenarios and develop disease eradication programmes. Our risk models have also supported the design of surveillance programmes that rank fish farms based on the risk of disease introduction and spread. Other models map the likelihood of disease establishment based on the distribution of susceptible species and water temperature profiles.