Climate change reshaping map of UK marine life, says new research
18 June 2025
The first comprehensive study of its kind has revealed how climate change will reshape the UK’s marine environment, with some species gaining suitable habitat while others face significant decline.
Led by the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS), the study examines how climate change will affect 19 threatened or declining UK marine species — from basking sharks to soft corals — under projected sea temperature rises.
The study, published in Marine Biology, aims to help policymakers and conservationists identify which UK species are most at risk from future climate change. Understanding how climate change may affect species’ breeding grounds, or the ability to find prey, will be crucial for informing future conservation and management strategies.
The key findings include:
- Northward shifts: Most species currently designated as ‘threatened or declining’ show increasing habitat suitability toward northern and central North Sea waters over the next 50 years. These areas may become biodiversity ‘hotspots’, while some southern and western waters risk losing key species as habitats become less suitable. However, the picture varies for specific locations, with increases of certain species in some areas but decreases in others.
- Climate ‘winners’ and ‘losers’: Species like basking sharks, spurdog, thornback ray and undulate ray are expected to gain suitable habitat, while others found on the seabed—including sea pens— could lose up to 40% of their suitable habitat by the end of the century, potentially impacting entire ecosystems that depend on them. Native Oysters, which have seen 95% decline in UK populations since the mid-19th century, are expected to see a doubling of suitable habitat.
- Mobile species show greater resilience: The study suggests that more mobile species may be more adaptable to climate pressures, provided human disturbance is minimised. This mobility gives them an advantage in seeking out more favourable conditions, but static or coral species (sea pen, sea fan, ocean quahog) may be more affected by environmental change.
- Habitat connectivity critical for vulnerable species
For species facing habitat decline, the researchers emphasise the need to consider 'habitat connectivity' when designing management options to allow species to move through changing marine environments and reach suitable areas as conditions shift.
Bryony Townhill, Principal Climate Change Scientist and author said:
“We know that climate change is having a huge impact on our ocean – with evidence suggesting that 70% of UK fish species have responded to warming seas. But much less is known about how other marine species in the UK, which are not only important from a conservation perspective, but for marine ecosystems, are also affected.”
“Our findings show that climate change is beginning to redraw the map of UK marine life. While some species may expand into new areas, others face an uncertain future—especially in areas without protection. To help species adapt, we need to create habitat corridors, closely monitor their movements, and ensure fisheries and conservation management measures evolve with the changing climate.”
The seas around the British Isles, particularly the southern North Sea, have been identified as marine climate change 'hotspots' – among 20 sites globally that have warmed fastest over the past 50 years.
In a 2020 report card, the UK Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP) Programme predicts sea water temperatures in the UK will increase between 0.25°C and 0.4°C per decade.
The data and maps used in this study are now available on the MCCIP website.
Picture courtesy of Pixabay.
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- The study was supported by the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) and funded by the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA).
- Predictive models were used to forecast the impacts of climate change on ‘habitat suitability’ - the degree to which a particular environment provides the necessary conditions for species to thrive and reproduce.
- Factors such as sea temperature, salinity, and seabed sediment type were used to assess whether climate change would lead to an ‘increase’ or ‘decrease’ in the amount of suitable habitat available around the UK over the coming century.
- Spurdog, thornback and undulate rays and native oyster showed the largest increases in suitable habitat this century, whereas decreases were seen in the slender sea pen, ocean quahog, sea fan and fan mussel.
- While the impact of climate change on commercial fish stocks is widely recognised, the study is one of the first to analyse the potential impacts of climate change on habitats of important and vulnerable conservation species in UK waters.
- A new modelling tool published by MCCIP allows the public to view the changes to species habitat suitability under different climate scenarios Change in Species Distribution over time – vulnerable species.
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